G20 : la montagne accouchera sans doute d'une souris

quelques remarques :

1. Ce G20 est une bonne chose. Les problèmes sont globaux, il est important que les principales parties prenantes soient autour de la table d'autant que les rapports de force changent ( la valeur du dollar dépend de plus en plus de la bonne volonté chinoise, il se relativise par rapport à l'euro, les vecteurs de croissance sont plus puissants dans le Sud que dans le Nord...)

2. C'est une bonne chose que de lier relance, c'est l'urgence, financement mondial avec la refonte du FMI et meilleure régulation du système financier voire moralisation. Dissocier les sujets, c'est à dire traiter plus tard la question de la moralisation, c'est s'assurer qu'elle ne sera jamais traitée   

3. Pour aboutir à de vrais résultats, il eût fallu une vraie unité européenne. Or la Grande Bretagne hésite entre soutenir les priorités américaines, c'est à dire la relance d'abord  et une approche plus équilibrée mêlant relance et  régulation. Un préliminaire, c'est que les Européens soient exemplaires en matière de régulation et donc créent des équivalents européens de la security exchange commission américaine, renforce les pouvoirs de la BCE... Tout ceci n'est acceptable pour Londres que si elle prend le leadership européen sur ces sujets. Pour l'instant, la maturité n'est pas là

4. L'unité franco-allemande au G20 est appréciable, nécessaire mais pas suffisante.

5. Le G20 aboutira à un renforcement du FMI et à une réaffirmation de la nécessité de lutter contre le protectionnisme. Tout cela va dans le bon sens mais n'est pas à la hauteur du défi, une relance mondiale équilibrée, ce qui suppose une meilleure coordination mondiale et, en ce qui nous concerne, européenne.  

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